Week 1 of the NFL season is upon us, which means every degenerate with a smartphone and a dream is staring at a betting board that looks more confusing than a Bill Belichick press conference. Joe Osborne at Covers did the homework this week, and his over/under combo card is worth your ten minutes before you fire off anything rash.

The headliner is Lions-Saints, and man, does that number make sense to an old-timer like me. Detroit's offense has been must-see TV for a while now, and New Orleans heads into the opener with rookie Tyler Shough under center and weapons around him. Osborne's leaning over, and I get it. These two franchises have played some absolute shootouts over the years, and nothing about either defense in recent memory screams "brick wall."

He's also on the over in Dolphins-Raiders, which is the kind of pick that makes you squint at first and nod the longer you sit with it. Miami's speed on turf or grass, doesn't much matter, is a track meet waiting to happen. To my eye, Vegas has spent recent years playing a looser, faster brand of ball than the outfits I grew up watching in silver and black, and Allegiant Stadium is no place for a pitcher's duel anyway. The ball flies in the desert and the scoreboard operator never gets a break.

The rest of his card covers the usual Week 1 minefields: teams with new quarterbacks, defenses that haven't game-planned for a real opponent in eight months, and weather you can't trust in September. Nobody talks enough about how much guessing the oddsmakers are doing this week too. Fresh rosters, new coordinators, and preseason tape that lies like a rug. That's where the value lives, and it's why guys like Osborne who actually grind the film and the numbers earn their keep.

My regular readers know my stance from my season betting guide: treat this like a hobby to study, not a shortcut to riches. A three-leg totals combo is entertainment money. It's the price of making a Sunday slate you weren't invested in suddenly matter. If it hits, you're buying the first round. If it doesn't, you learned something about two teams you needed to learn about anyway.

One word of caution from a guy who's watched four decades of openers: Week 1 lies more than any other week. Teams look like world-beaters one Sunday and also-rans by Halloween, and it happens every single year. Fade the overreactions, respect the totals that look too easy, and if a number makes you say "that's way too low," remember the book already knows you're thinking it.

Go read Osborne's full breakdown before kickoff. Do the homework, then make your own call. That's how you win this game over the long haul.