Video games aren't usually my beat, but every so often a story crosses my desk that I can't resist. My granddaughter Jess keeps me supplied with gaming news whether I ask for it or not, and this week she flagged a Forbes piece arguing that Modern Warfare 4's campaign is the odds-on favorite to be the best Call of Duty single-player experience in years. And you know what? The reasoning holds up.

The case rests on two things: the data and the team. When you look at the track record of the studio handling the campaign and the pattern of how these releases have landed, the pieces line up. It's the same instinct I apply to phones. When Samsung puts its best camera team on a device, you can reasonably predict the camera will be good before you ever hold it.

I've watched this franchise since the early days. I remember when the original Modern Warfare landed in 2007 and basically rewired what people expected from a military shooter. Everyone in my family who gamed was talking about that airport level for months. That was nearly two decades ago, and the series has had its ups and downs since. Some campaigns soared, a few felt phoned in. So when the signs point to something special, it's worth paying attention.

The Forbes analysis leans on betting odds and development history, which sounds gimmicky but is actually a fairly sensible proxy. Odds-makers aggregate a lot of informed opinion, and the studio behind this campaign has done strong work before. Combine those two and you get a reasonable case for optimism rather than just marketing hype. And we all know how I feel about hype; overpriced and overhyped gets called out in this column every single time.

Should you preorder based on this? I'd say hold your horses, same as I tell everyone about phone preorders. Wait for reviews from people who've actually finished the campaign, then decide. But if you've been drifting away from Call of Duty's single-player offerings over the past few releases, this might be the year to come back.

I'll ask Jess for her verdict once it's out. She's a tougher critic than any odds-maker I know...