Yahoo Sports dropped its Week 3 betting advice column this week, and it includes picks and props for the Giants-Titans game, which is exactly the kind of matchup I love digging into: two fanbases convinced their team is worse than it is, and props where the numbers and the narratives point in different directions.

I'm not going to hand you Yahoo's picks verbatim, go read the piece for the full slate. What I want to do is walk through how I'd stress-test any Giants-Titans angle, because that process transfers to every bet you make this weekend.

The core question in a game like this, to me, is volume. My general rule: when a prop market prices in last week's box score instead of this week's game script, that's where the edges hide. I'm a usage guy. Target shares and route participation tell me more about what a coaching staff actually plans to do than touchdowns do, and one broken-play score does not make a prop a value. To be clear, that's my read and my process, not something Yahoo's column claims, and you should check their reasoning against your own.

My own filters for this weekend: fade anyone whose Week 2 line was carried by a single splash play, check the weather report before you touch any passing props wherever you're playing, and remember two weeks of football is still mostly noise. Deb's already yelling at me that I said that exact sentence about her panic-trading Amon-Ra, and she's right, but I'm consistent. Ray would tell you to just watch the tape and trust your eyes. Cool, Ray. Most of the time my spreadsheet and his eyeballs land in the same place anyway, so we're mostly arguing about the edges.

The usual disclaimer, which I actually mean: this stuff is analysis and entertainment, not financial advice. I keep a ledger of my own receipts, winners and losers, and I'll grade everything at midseason like I always do. Last year's ledger was humbling in exactly the way a ledger should be.

If you're playing Week 3, play it with numbers you can defend at the bar on Monday. Yahoo's column covers the Giants-Titans game and the rest of the slate, then it's on you to check the volume underneath the headline stats.

Now if you'll excuse me, I have a 2-0 start in the home league to protect and a three-year losing streak to avenge. The streak ends this season. I've written it down, so it's basically a lock.